Feargal de Freine
Assurance Partner and Head of FDI, EY Ireland
Ireland’s Strategic Imperative: Navigating Geopolitical Complexity in 2026
As organisations look ahead to 2026 and beyond, geopolitical turbulence is no longer a notional risk. Over the past 12 months geopolitics and its consequences have been an ever present on the agenda of executives, boards and policymakers and this year will see more of the same.
For Ireland, home to many multinationals and deeply embedded in global supply chains, geopolitics is a strategic reality that cannot be ignored.
Ireland continues to perform strongly in terms of our attractiveness for inbound Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The IDA reported a record 323 investments in 2025, up 38% on 2024, including 80 R&D projects supporting €2.5bn in expenditure amongst IDA clients.
However, this does not mean Ireland can be complacent. From tariffs to supply chains to Artificial Intelligence, 2025 saw the rules of global business rewritten. As we look ahead to 2026, EY has identified 10 key global geostrategic themes that we expect will continue to dominate boardroom agendas this year. Of particular relevance are the following:
Trade and Tariffs
Tariffs will remain a feature of the global economy in 2026, as countries use tariffs and export controls as instruments of economic and geopolitical strategy. In response, Irish exporters and international businesses based here must challenge old assumptions about market access and exemptions.
This expected continuation of US tariff policies into the medium term, irrespective of any judicial decisions, however, must not trigger a deprioritisation of the Ireland-US two-way trade relationship. This long-established relationship remains fundamental, underpinned by shared heritage and multinational investment in both directions across the Atlantic.
At the same time, indigenous Irish businesses and multinationals based here, particularly those with manufacturing and service sites, need to think seriously about market diversification and how to optimise and protect supply chains.
State Intervention and Industrial Policy
Governments are increasingly shaping markets through subsidies, procurement rules and incentives tied to local content. The implications are twofold:
In markets where policy is tilting towards domestic or domiciled players, expect higher barriers and greater compliance demands.
In jurisdictions deploying targeted incentives to attract trusted partners, opportunities exist for Irish firms that demonstrate strong capabilities and governance.
Success depends on integrating policy intelligence into planning, not treating it as an afterthought. For Ireland, this means leveraging our role within the EU, ensuring our voice is influential in shaping policy, and preparing to maximise the strategic opportunities presented by our forthcoming EU Presidency.
Technology and Sovereign AI
Ireland’s technology footprint offers a genuine opportunity to lead in AI and data sovereignty.
With 16 of the world’s top 20 tech companies operating here, and with the latest figures from the IDA’s full year results for 2025 showing record R&D investment across all sectors, the potential is significant. To realise this potential, Ireland must prioritise digital infrastructure, energy capacity and governance frameworks that meet evolving expectations on data localisation and cyber resilience.
Spheres of Engagement
These dynamics will play out across four spheres of engagement, each of which brings distinct challenges and opportunities.
North America remains volatile on trade and regulation, yet it is indispensable for Irish exporters.
Asia-Pacific is doubling down on economic security and technology sovereignty, creating both competitive pressure and partnership potential.
Europe is striving to boost competitiveness and to simplify regulation.
Finally, the Middle East is recalibrating, with investment flows and energy dynamics opening new corridors as the region takes its place as a key sphere of global importance.
For Ireland, understanding these spheres is not academic; it is essential to shaping strategy and seizing growth opportunities in a fragmenting world.
So, what should Irish business leaders do? First, build resilience for the unexpected: as every business leader has learned in 2025, scenario planning is now a constant necessity. Second, bring geostrategic risk into corporate governance: political risk cannot sit in a silo. Third, adapt supply chains and footprints.
Geopolitical uncertainty is not a passing storm – it is the climate in which Irish businesses will operate in throughout 2026. Ireland’s strengths- trust, openness and partnership- remain real. The challenge is to match these with strategies that anticipate shocks, seize opportunities and safeguard national and business interests.
